Chinese Military Activity Fluctuations Near Taiwan

Taiwan saw a surge of Chinese military planes near the island, its defense ministry said Sunday, after a sharp drop in flights over the past two weeks had sparked discussions among observers. The ministry detected 26 Chinese military aircraft around the island on Saturday, with 16 of them entering its northern, central and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. Seven naval ships were spotted around the island, it reported. The increased number of aircraft came after the ministry reported a fall that left analysts scratching their heads about what China’s military may be up to. Taiwan didn’t report any Chinese military planes that went beyond the median line and entered the zone for a week from Feb. 27 to March 5. After two were detected on March 6, the next four days had none. Such flights resumed in small numbers between Wednesday and Friday. The drop coincided with the annual meeting of China’s legislature. While such flights have fallen in the past during major events and public holidays, this year’s fall was more prominent than in the past. Analysts said the meeting could not be the sole reason behind the recent drop. Another potential factor could be a desire to calm the waters with Washington weeks before a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump. The White House has said that Trump would travel to China from March 31 to April 2, though Beijing has not officially confirmed that. Some observers also suggested the decline may be driven by a shift to a next phase in China’s military training and modernization, with the army appearing to be exploring a new model for joint training between its forces. China has vowed to seize the island, by force if necessary. Over the years, Beijing has sent warplanes and navy vessels toward the island on a near-daily basis. Taiwan’s military previously signaled that it wasn’t changing its defense posture because of the falloff in Chinese warplane activity. Defense Minister Wellington Koo earlier noted that China’s navy has remained active in nearby waters, even as military flights have fallen off. China and Taiwan have been governed separately since 1949, when the Communist Party rose to power in Beijing following a civil war. Defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan, which later transitioned from martial law to multiparty democracy.