Poll Shows Americans' Pessimistic Views on State of the Union Under Trump

As President Trump is set to deliver his first official State of the Union address of his second term, most Americans say the country is worse off than a year ago and that the state of the union is not strong, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. Additionally, more people than ever are describing the direction Trump is moving the country as 'change for the worse.'

'It's not unusual for a president having a long 'to do' list for the [State of the Union address], but President Trump's 'check list' seems exceptionally large,' said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion, which conducts the survey. The address, he said, represents 'a big opportunity for him to try to reset with the nation, but it's a tall order when views about him are so baked in.'

The poll is the latest sign of the political headwinds Trump is facing, particularly with persuadable voters. But given that his base continues to stand behind him — more than 8 in 10 Republicans think the country is better off than a year ago — Trump is unlikely to cede any ground in Tuesday's address.

The survey of 1,462 adults was conducted from Jan. 27-30 and has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points, meaning results could be about 3 points higher or lower than the reported number. Pollsters reached out to respondents in multiple ways, including with live callers, by text and online and in both English and Spanish.

By a 57%-to-43% margin, respondents said the state of the union is not strong, a 4-point increase from a year ago. That includes 8 in 10 Democrats and about two-thirds of independents. Roughly three-quarters of Republicans, however, said they think it is strong.

One of the sharpest divides on this question is by education — 69% of college graduates said the state of the union is not strong, while those without degrees are split 50%-50% on whether it's strong or not. Among the groups most likely to say the state of the union is not strong are those over 60 years old and women who live in small cities or the suburbs. There is a notable gender divide, with women 12 points more likely to say the union is not strong compared to men (63% vs. 51%). Republicans, white evangelical Christians, people who live in rural areas and parents with children under 18 were the most likely to say the state of the union is strong.

Sixty percent said the country is worse off than a year ago, including about two-thirds of independents and 9 in 10 Democrats. Like most other issues, 8 in 10 Republicans side with Trump.

Most respondents (55%) also see the direction Trump is moving the country in as a 'change for the worse.' That's the highest number recorded by Marist on the question between both of Trump's terms. What's more, 53% of respondents said Trump's policies have had a mostly negative impact on them personally, 4 points higher than a year ago.

A whopping 78% said they see a serious threat to the future of American democracy, and 68% said the system of checks and balances dividing power between the president, Congress and the courts is not working well. Majorities across political groups — 91% of Democrats, 80% of independents and 61% of Republicans — said they see a serious threat to the future of democracy. But, as seen in past surveys and interviews, their reasons for that might well be very different.

On checks and balances, there's been a 12-point jump from a year ago in the percentage of those saying the system isn't working well. That was driven by an 11-point increase from independents and 17 points from Republicans, though a majority of Republicans continue to say the system is working well. The high numbers of respondents saying the system isn't working is reflective of the broader decline in trust in institutions and government.