France's Municipal Elections as a Political Barometer

France has begun voting in the first round of municipal elections, seen as crucial a test of the political temperature before next year’s presidential election. The vote for mayors and councillors in 35,000 villages, towns and cities across France is focused on local issues including security, housing and refuse collection and is very different from national elections. But the two-round vote held on consecutive Sundays — particularly the ballot in large towns and cities — will be scrutinised for what it can reveal about party strategy and alliances in France’s increasingly fragmented political landscape before the 2027 presidential race. Emmanuel Macron’s two terms in office end next year and there is uncertainty about which candidates will run for the presidency of the EU’s second largest economy. Two years after Macron called a snap election in 2024, parliament remains divided, with no absolute majority, split between the left, far right and centrists. The far-right anti-immigration National Rally (RN) is seen as a key contender in the presidential race, but has traditionally struggled to establish itself at the local level, and lost councillors in the last municipal elections in 2020. Voter turn-out at 5pm on Sunday stood at 48.9%, higher than the same point in the 2020 local elections, when the Covid pandemic caused many voters to stay home, but lower than previous municipal elections in 2014. The RN is seeking to hold on to the biggest city it runs: Perpignan, with a population of 121,000, close to the Spanish border. It hopes to win another city, with targets including Toulon on the south coast and Nîmes in the south-east. A big RN win in a large city would allow the party to claim that it is building momentum. It is the main opposition challenger in Marseille, France’s second biggest city, run by a leftwing coalition since 2020. In Nice, France’s fifth biggest city, Éric Ciotti – who quit as leader of the traditional right’s party, Les Républicains (LR), to join forces with the RN in 2024 – is hoping to win the city from his bitter rival and one-time rightwing ally, Christian Estrosi. How the RN fares in some cities will depend on whether parties on the left form a kind of alliance or agreement to block the far right between the first and second rounds. Historically, France’s major cities have been governed either by centre-left groupings, including the Socialists, or Les Républicains. Green-led coalitions won significant cities in the last municipal elections in 2020, including Lyon, but are under pressure as they try to hold on to their gains. The party of the radical leftwinger Jean-Luc Mélenchon, La France Insoumise (LFI), is also seeking to gain a foothold at a local level before the presidential race. It is aiming to have more councillors, particularly in the greater Paris area, and is targeting mayoral posts in towns such as Roubaix in the north. There will be a close eye on any kind of alliance formed between the two rounds to hold back rival groups in certain towns or cities. Any local deal that brings the traditional right and the far right closer, breaking down a historical division between the two, is being carefully watched. It also remains to be seen whether leftwing coalitions led by Socialists can form deals with Mélenchon’s LFI to hold back potential RN gains, for example in Marseille. François Kraus, the head of political studies at the IFOP polling institute, said that the municipal vote should not be seen as a “primary for the presidential election”, but would nonetheless reveal key trends and dynamics. “These municipal elections will no doubt provide a useful barometer of the political climate,” he said. A key focus will be the battle to be mayor of Paris. The right’s Rachida Dati, who served as culture minister under Macron, as well as justice minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, is seeking to take Paris from the left, which has been in power for 25 years. Dati was the first woman of north African and Muslim heritage to hold a major French government post and has redefined political celebrity in France. She is one of the best-known candidates running in the municipal elections. In September, Dati will go on trial in Paris for alleged corruption and abuse of power. She was accused of lobbying for the Renault-Nissan carmaking group when she sat in the European parliament. She has denied all wrongdoing. Emmanuel Grégoire, a deputy mayor and Paris Socialist MP, is heading a leftwing coalition in what will be a close-run race, with five candidates potentially making it through to the final round. Also being closely watched is the northern port city of Le Havre, where the former prime minister Édouard Philippe has staked his presidential ambitions for 2027, suggesting that if he does not win the city he has run since 2014, his candidacy for the presidential race would be in question. Many mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from political parties, reflecting voters’ exasperation with politics and the deadlock in parliament. A large number of mayors, particularly in villages, are standing as independents.